The South African Budget Speech, delivered on 25 February 2026, introduced key changes that affect provisional taxpayers – and these updates could directly impact your penalties if your tax estimates or payments are not handled correctly.

At Tax A Sured (Pty) Ltd, we break it down in simple terms so you understand exactly what this means for you.

What Is Changing?

Stricter Rules on Underestimating Provisional Tax
Previously, the underestimation penalty would only apply if:

• You underestimated your taxable income outside the acceptable tolerance range.

However, there was a loophole:

If your estimate was technically within the acceptable range, but you didn’t actually pay the provisional tax, SARS could not charge the underestimation penalty. Instead, only a smaller late payment penalty would apply.

👉 This created room for taxpayers to submit “safe” estimates but delay or avoid payment.

What Happens From 25 February 2026?

With immediate effect from 25 February 2026:
To rely on your provisional tax estimate and avoid penalties, you must now pay the estimated amount on time.

In simple terms:

Submitting an estimate is no longer enough.
You must submit and pay on time.
If payment is not made, your estimate cannot be relied on to avoid penalties.

The good news?

There are already safeguards in place to ensure you won’t be charged both an underestimation penalty and a late payment penalty unfairly – duplication of penalties is prevented.

Increase to the R1 Million Threshold

Another important update affects taxpayers who rely on historical assessed taxable income instead of submitting a fresh estimate.
Previously:
If your taxable income exceeded R1 million, you could not rely on your previous year’s assessed income as a safe estimate.

From 1 March 2026 (for new tax years):

That threshold increases from R1 million to R1.8 million.

✔ This means more taxpayers can safely rely on historical assessed income when calculating provisional tax – without triggering penalties.

What This Means for You

If you are:

• A business owner
• A freelancer or consultant
• A landlord earning rental income
• An investor with non-salary income
• A company paying provisional tax
  You must now focus on both accurate estimates and timely payments.
  SARS is tightening compliance, and cash flow planning becomes even more important.

How to Stay Safe

• Submit realistic, accurate income estimates
• Ensure provisional tax payments are made before the deadline
• Review whether you qualify to rely on historical assessed income (now up to R1.8 million)
• Get professional assistance if unsure

Tax compliance is no longer just about paperwork – it’s about timing and accuracy.
If you are unsure how these changes affect your 2026 provisional tax planning, Tax A Sured (Pty) Ltd is ready to assist you in staying compliant while avoiding unnecessary penalties.

Reach out today for professional guidance and peace of mind.

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